New York Sandlot

The Yankees have a problem: Their ace, who signed a big money contract which runs until the end of the 2017 season, has suddenly lost effectiveness. Pitching to ERA’s of 4.78 in 2013, 5.28 in an injury shortened 2014, and 5.31 so far in 2015; A pitcher that has not had an ERA over 4 since 2005. CC’s fastball showed signs of slowing down while he was still dominating. Fastball velocity dropped from 93.9 MPH in 2011 to 92.4 MPH in 2012. It didn’t stop there, 91.3 in 2013.89.6 in 2014. It now sits at 89.8. You hear time and time again that fastball velocity doesn’t matter as long as you can locate your pitches. Well…

That right there is the problem. He can’t locate his pitches. Look at how far the catcher needs to move his arm to get that ball. And the gif above doesn’t even detail the biggest problem: When CC misses, he tends to miss inside the zone. When you throw a low-velocity pitch that catches too much of the plate, you’re toast. Guys like Greg Maddux are all time greats because his control allowed his high-80s fastball to dominate opponents. There is nothing dominating about a 90 MPH fastball thrown thigh high over the middle of the plate. It’s been said a million times that CC’s lack of control kills him, given his decrease in velocity. But let’s open the hood and look at some numbers.

CC’s injury shortened 2014 looks like an absolute disaster in terms of the quality of the pitching, but look at his actual numbers. He was striking out 9.39 batters per 9 innings, a number which would have been a career high had he pitched a full season at that rate. His walk rate was below his career average as well. So far in 2015 his K rate is above his career average while his walk rate is still below his career average. So, what could possibly give rise to ERA’s of 5.28 and 5.31? The answer is in his home run rate. In 2014, a stunning 23% of the fly balls Sabathia gave up left the park. The number is down this year, but still high at 17%. Usually, this is a sign of bad luck, and the number would end up regressing to something closer to league average (about 10%). After 129 innings over a two seasons? It’s safer to assume that high home run rates are just CC’s thing now. Catching too much of the plate leads to homers. If you throw a ton of meatballs, your home run rate will be higher than average, and CC is throwing a TON of meatballs.

Let’s close the hood now. Let’s actually watch what’s happening. CC Sabathia cruised through 4 shutout innings, in which he’s struck out 5 and walked 1. He comes back out for the fifth inning, and he gives up 6 hits, including a 2 run home run, 4 runs and gets out of the inning with a man stranded on second. He then pitches the 6th inning without much of a problem. His next game, the same thing happens, but his blow-up occurs in the third inning. Then in his next start, his blowup occurs in the 5th again. The recurring theme is CC is suffering from what I call the OBI. One Bad Inning. All of the runs he gives up happen in short bursts within a single inning. You can practically bet on it almost every time. Hitters just start zeroing in on these pitches that miss and catch too much of the plate. He’s his usual dominant self outside of these innings, but the OBI eventually catches him.

Finally, here’s what you all have been waiting for: How do we fix it? Here are your two options. The first is that you hope and pray that CC just starts hitting his pitches. Which is unlikely given how long he’s been pitching. Your other option is to move CC to the bullpen. Put him in the same role that Dellin Betances was in last year. He can be the guy to come out of the pen, pitch 2 high leverage innings, and bridge the gap to the final few innings. It would make him a “fireman” of sorts. CC can’t have his OBI if he’s only throwing two or three innings at a time. His velocity would also tick up a little due to his lightened workload. Control does not matter as much for relievers because they do not throw as many innings. Most importantly, it would eliminate hitters seeing CC multiple times in a single game. That’s where the problem gets worse. Hitters see how CC’s missing, and they tag him the second time around. A move to the pen would do wonders for CC.

Don’t hold your breath. The Yankees aren’t paying CC 23 million dollars (25 million next year and 2017) to come out of the pen. They’re paying him to be an ace and will refuse to take him out of a role that could maybe lead to him returning to ace form. No matter how much sense it makes, they’re just going to weather the storm. The Yankees have a bit of a starting pitcher logjam these days, and CC going to the pen seems like the best bet to help the team to me. I’m not the one paying his contract, however.

Tell us what you think. Do you think CC moving to the pen is a good idea? Do you think the Yankees would even entertain the idea? Are CC’s days as an effective pitcher over? How about other ideas that you might have on how to fix this problem? Let us know in the comments, and your response could be featured in a future article.